EXPERT SUMMARY — Given this weekend’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the incredible fast pace at which events are unfolding, The Cipher Brief wanted to share a few key highlights from some of The Cipher Brief conversations we had today with deeply experienced military and intelligence experts. This is the first in a series of special coverage all this week on the U.S. strikes on Iran and what will follow.
THE CONTEXT:
- Operation Midnight Hammer was a highly classified mission that delivered precise U.S. strikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities. Very few in Washington were briefed on the mission before it was carried out.
- Before U.S. aircraft entered Iranian airspace, “a U.S. submarine launched more than two dozen tomahawk land attack cruise missiles against key surface infrastructure targets,” according to the Department of Defense.
- U.S. B2 bombers dropped multiple GBU massive ordinance penetrator bombs on nuclear sites, dropping a total of approximately 75 precision guided weapons.
- U.S. officials assess that determining the final extent of damage from the operation will take some time, but initial estimates suggested “extremely severe” damage and destruction.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
General David Petraeus (Ret.)
General David Petraeus served more than 37 years in the U.S. military with six consecutive commands, five of which were combat, including command of the Multi-National Force-Iraq during the Surge, U.S. Central Command, and Coalition and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. He is a partner in the KKR global investment firm and chairs the firm’s global institute.
- On the Military Mission: The mission demonstrated overwhelming U.S. military precision with no Iranian resistance, but it remains unclear if Iran’s nuclear capabilities were completely destroyed until thorough bomb damage assessments (BDA) are completed.
- The Primary Intelligence Focus: The primary intelligence focus now is to verify if Iran retains highly enriched uranium, operational centrifuges, or undisclosed nuclear sites, which would determine if the nuclear program can be quickly restarted.
- Iran’s Potential Response: Iran may feel the need to respond, possibly targeting U.S. bases, energy infrastructure, or mining the Strait of Hormuz, though their retaliatory capabilities appear significantly degraded.
Norman T. Roule
Norman Roule is a geopolitical and energy consultant who served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. As NIM-I at ODNI, he was responsible for all aspects of national intelligence policy related to Iran, including IC engagement with senior policymakers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
- Iran’s Oil Strategy Post-Strikes: Iran has ramped up oil exports and repositioned floating storage near China, possibly to hedge against the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Potential Gulf Closure Scenarios: Iran could disrupt the Strait using mines, GPS jamming, speedboats, and coastal missiles, but would likely be unable to keep it closed for more than a few weeks due to rapid multinational military response.
- Internal Stability Warning Signs: Roule is closely watching for signs of internal fragmentation in Iran, such as regions falling out of government control or systemic failures within security forces, which could signal deeper regime instability.
Ralph Goff
Ralph Goff is a 35-year veteran of the CIA where he was a 6-time Chief of Station with extensive service in Europe, the Middle East, and Central and South Asia including several war zones. He served as Chief of Operations for Europe and Eurasia. Goff also served as Chief of CIA’s National Resources Division, working extensively with “C Suite” level US private sector executives in the financial, banking, and security sectors. Goff is reportedly being considered as one of the candidates for deputy director of the CIA.
- Immediate Focus: Damage Assessment and Anticipating Retaliation: Israel and the U.S. are prioritizing battle damage assessment to determine the success of the strikes and preparing for various forms of Iranian retaliation, from missile strikes to cyberattacks.
- Iran’s Limited Options and Proxy Weakness: Iran’s traditional proxies, particularly Lebanese Hezbollah, have been severely weakened by Israeli operations. While the proxy threat remains, Iran’s best remaining avenues for retaliation may now lie in asymmetric gray zone operations.
- Gray Zone and Global Threat Vigilance: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could intensify gray zone operations, including potential assassination plots and cyberattacks. Close monitoring of Iranian operatives abroad, signals intelligence, and coordination with international allies are critical to preventing future attacks.
Glenn Corn
Glenn Corn is a former Senior Executive in the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) who worked for 34 years in the U.S. Intelligence, Defense, and Foreign Affairs communities. He spent over 17 years serving overseas and served as the U.S. President’s Senior Representative on Intelligence and Security issues. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Institute of World Politics.
- Iranian Proxy Threats and Hezbollah’s Weakened State: Hezbollah has been significantly degraded by Israeli operations and is currently unlikely to engage in large-scale retaliation. However, Corn cautioned about the possibility of rogue or fringe elements conducting isolated attacks, which still pose a serious threat.
- Regional Political Complexity and U.S. Leverage: Lebanon is under international pressure to disarm Hezbollah, but its leaders argue that political solutions and rebuilding efforts must accompany disarmament. U.S. aid may be contingent on Lebanon’s progress in weakening Hezbollah’s influence.
- Global Implications and Russian Calculations: Corn suggested that Russia is likely both impressed and concerned by the precision of Israeli and U.S. operations. He anticipates that Putin may be recalibrating his understanding of U.S. red lines, particularly as Russia relies on Iranian drones in Ukraine. Corn emphasized that the U.S. strike signals unpredictability under President Trump, potentially forcing adversaries to rethink their strategies.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani served as the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization (KEDO), as well as former CIA director of East Asia Operations. He also served as Associate Director of National Intelligence and Mission Manager for North Korea, was the Special Envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea, and served as the Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center, ODNI. He currently serves on the Board of Managers at Sandia National Laboratories.
- North Korea’s Validation and Opportunity: The U.S. strikes on Iran reinforce North Korea’s decision to maintain nuclear weapons and present an opportunity for Pyongyang to flex its military muscle and potentially deepen ties with Iran.
- China’s Discomfort and Limited Influence: China is unhappy with North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia and the potential for nuclear escalation but has limited ability to control Pyongyang’s actions, positioning North Korea as an unpredictable wildcard in the regional power balance.
- Danger of Iran-North Korea Cooperation: DeTrani warned of potential North Korean assistance to Iran in missile technology and even in providing nuclear materials that could be used for dirty bombs, emphasizing that this axis needs to be monitored closely to prevent catastrophic escalation.
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