MONTREAL — This is about more than just the player that’s coming to Montreal and immediately being made the highest-paid Canadien on the active roster.
It’s about possibilities.
Before we get to them, Noah Dobson choosing to reportedly sign an eight-year, $76-million contract with the Canadiens deserves its own spotlight. He’s a six-foot-four, right-handed defenceman who’s just entering his prime at 25, and he essentially forced his way from Long Island to Montreal because he believes in the chances he’ll have to win with the Canadiens over that time.
That’s as relevant as anything else that comes with this deal.
On Thursday, Canadiens executive vice president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton said, “We have a team that we think is coming together, we think highly of where we’re going, and we think we’re moving in the right direction.”
For Dobson to make it clear he agrees — in becoming the first big-name player outside of Montreal to choose the Canadiens since they officially embarked on their rebuild in 2022 — is significant. It offers hope he’s just the first outsider to invest in their future, especially with the lustre he adds to what was already one of the shiniest young cores in the NHL.
It cost the Canadiens the 16th and 17th overall picks in this weekend’s draft. It cost them Emil Heineman, too. And that was a hefty price to pay for the defenceman who had just 39 points this past season.
But the bet this past season was an outlier — with Dobson playing for an injury-plagued, offensively-stymied Islanders team that finished 27th in goals per game — is a safe one, considering 51- and 49-point seasons that preceded his 70-point breakout in 2023-24. The price of the trade is also easily digestible for the Canadiens, who were most likely to use those picks on players that project to be middle-to-bottom-six players.
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The Canadiens really liked Heineman, but he was also a middle-to-bottom-six player for them, and they’re overflowing with middle-to-bottom six players — both on their roster and in their farm system.
Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach, Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson and Jake Evans are all locked into jobs with the Canadiens. And Oliver Kapanen, Owen Beck, Joshua Roy, Florian Xhekaj, Luke Tuch and Jared Davidson are just some of the players who will be pushing to snatch up an opening at that end of the roster this coming fall.
That abundance made giving up 16th, 17th and Heineman for a player who’s already a proven top-pairing defenceman more than palatable to the Canadiens.
Getting Dobson, who’s scored at least 10 goals in each of the last four seasons, to sign for $9.5 million per season (when his initial ask to the Islanders was reportedly as high as $11 million) was good business. Not just because the salary cap is rising from $88 million to $95.5 million and going as high as $113 million in 2027, but also because it potentially puts a ceiling over Lane Hutson in contract negotiations this summer.
The Calder Trophy winner is eligible to sign a contract extension with the Canadiens as of July 1, when he’ll still be a year away from having his entry-level contract expire. He had six goals and 66 points this season, and he’s got a great case for an enormous payday.
But we’re not sure Hutson can state just yet that he’ll be any more valuable to the Canadiens’ future than Dobson will be.
Either way, both players will be vital parts of this blue-line for years to come. So will Kaiden Guhle, who’s entering Year 1 of a six-year, $33-million contract. So will David Reinbacher, the six-foot-three defenceman who was chosen fifth overall by the Canadiens in 2023.
The four of them — Hutson, Dobson, Guhle, Reinbacher — can be seen as the foundation of a future Cup contender.
The incredibly versatile Alex Carrier, who’s signed for two more years at a marginal $3.7 million per, helps secure that foundation.
And then you have Arber Xhekaj ($1.3 million) and Jayden Struble, who have both established themselves as NHL regulars and are both under team control for at least three more seasons.
Which brings us to Mike Matheson.
The possibility he moves for some help at forward in the coming days got much stronger with Dobson’s arrival.
Matheson is only 31 years old. The main reason he went from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 in 2024-25 is because Hutson’s arrival pushed him completely out of an offensive role and into a defensive one. He can still produce big numbers if positioned to, and he has one year left on a sweet deal that pays him just $4.875 million.
Before Friday, the Canadiens couldn’t even entertain the thought of trading Matheson. But now, with Dobson’s arrival, his potential availability on the market could open a trade avenue that was previously blocked to them.
In a seller’s market full of teams unwilling to move roster players out for futures, the Canadiens were handcuffed to address their greatest need: a top-six forward (preferably a centre). Now they have a roster player to package — perhaps along with prospect Logan Mailloux — should they so choose.
The Canadiens don’t have to do that. Perhaps they see Matheson as a chip to procure a top-10 pick in Friday’s first round. Or maybe they see him as a part of their blue-line for now and the future.
The point is Dobson’s acquisition opens up all the options, and several other possibilities.
On top of adding him to their core and getting him to commit long-term to what they’re building, that’s what this deal is about for the Canadiens.
Updates to follow once Canadiens general manger Kent Hughes and/or Dobson speaks, and once more details on Dobson’s contract emerge.
