Oil prices tumble as Trump hints that US near nuclear deal with Iran

Oil prices slid more than 3% before paring losses on Thursday after President Trump hinted that the US was nearing a nuclear deal with Iran—a move that could increase global crude supply.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures fell to just above $61 per barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, dropped to around $64.40.

“We’ll see what happens,” Trump said during a visit to Doha, Qatar. “But we’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace. And if we do that, it’ll be fantastic.”

A senior Iranian official told NBC News this week that Iran would agree to never develop a nuclear weapon and meet other terms of the deal—if all economic sanctions were lifted immediately.

CIBC Private Wealth senior energy trader Rebecca Babin isn’t convinced an agreement will go through so easily. But if it does, she estimates oil supply could increase by 200,000 to 400,000 per day.

“They [Iran] have really gotten quite good at skirting sanctions, so most don’t expect a massive flood hitting the market if sanctions are lifted,” Babin told Yahoo Finance on Thursday.

Iran, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces more than 3 million barrels of oil per day.

Oil prices are down more than 12% year-to-date after tumbling in April following President Trump’s announcement of new tariff policies and OPEC+’s decision to raise production starting in May. The oil cartel later agreed to further increase output in June.

“If we add in OPEC+’s additional oil production coming in the next few months, global crude supply and demand dynamics could shift toward oversupply,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs analysts warned of downside risks to oil prices if OPEC+ proceeds with its planned output hikes—or adds more in July.

“We expect strong supply growth outside of U.S. shale to further pressure prices and U.S. shale production,” wrote Goldman’s Daan Struyven and his team in a Sunday night note.

The analysts forecast Brent to edge down to average $60 in the rest of 2025, with WTI averaging $56.