India has increased its oil imports from Russia and the United States in June, outpacing combined purchases from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers, news agency PTI reported, citing data from global trade analytics firm Kpler.
According to Kpler, Indian refiners are expected to import 2–2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in June — the highest volume in two years. This exceeds the total volume of crude imported from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, which is projected to stand at around 2 million bpd this month.
India’s crude oil imports from Russia stood at 1.96 million bpd in May. Imports from the US have also surged, rising from 280,000 bpd in May to 439,000 bpd in June. Between June 1 and 19, Russian shipments accounted for over 35% of India’s crude intake. “India’s June volumes from Russia and the US confirm this resilience-oriented mix,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler.
“If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India may pivot harder toward the US, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit at higher freight costs. Also, India may tap its strategic reserves (covering 9–10 days of imports) to bridge any shortfall.”
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, sources nearly 40% of its crude and about half of its gas through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route now under threat due to Iranian warnings following Israeli and US military actions. Iran has threatened to shut the strait — through which a fifth of the world’s oil and most Qatari LNG passes — but Kpler believes a full blockade is unlikely.
“While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days,” Ritolia noted.”Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving.”
Kpler assigns a low probability to a full closure of Hormuz, citing Iran’s dependence on the strait for exports. “Iran’s reliance on Hormuz via Kharg Island (which handles 96% of its oil exports) makes a self-blockade counterproductive,” Ritolia said. Moreover, Iran’s largest customer, China, imports nearly 47% of its seaborne crude from the Gulf, and any disruption would directly impact Chinese energy security.
Iran has also rebuilt ties with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which would be severely impacted by any disruption. Provoking a closure could unravel those diplomatic gains and risk retaliation. “Any Iranian naval build-up would be detectable in advance, likely triggering a preemptive US and allied response,” Kpler added.
The shift in India’s sourcing strategy is part of a broader trend since 2022, when Western sanctions on Russia made its oil available at a discount. Russian oil’s share in India’s crude mix has grown from under 1% to over 40% in just over two years. These flows, detached from Hormuz, travel via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or the Pacific Ocean, reducing risk exposure.
According to Kpler, India imported about 1.9 million bpd from Middle Eastern countries between June 1–19. This is projected to reach 2.0 million bpd for the full month — still lower than May levels by 100,000–150,000 bpd.
(With inputs from PTI)
