An extended conflict in the Middle East is now the “most likely” scenario after the US escalation over the weekend, commodities analysts at ANZ said on Monday morning.
“Risks of supply disruption in the crude oil market have risen sharply following an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict,” Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, commodity strategists at the Australian lender, wrote in a note.
“The most likely scenario (we estimate a 50% probability) in our view is an extended conflict. This would see supplies come under direct threat,” they said.
“However, the oil market is better equipped to respond to that than it has been in the past,” they added, noting that Opec has more than 6mn barrels a day of spare capacity that can be quickly activated.
They expected a price range of $75-$85 a barrel “for this scenario”.
